A new Marquette Law School poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally by six points among likely voters in a head-to-head match up, 53% to 47%.
In a multi-candidate field, Harris leads 50% to 42%
If other polls get similar margins, Trump is in big trouble
OK, I’ll be the first to say it this time. While the results of this poll warm my heart, the fact remains that the only poll that matters is on election day! Make sure and vote.
Be sure and VOTE!
And national ones are irrelevant when the system is FPTP. Trump was president without a national advantage.
The electoral college is what makes national polls meaningless, not FPTP. If we picked presidents via national popular vote, national polls would be relevant, even if we still had FPTP.
Polls lie
Vote like they all lie
The survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, 2024, interviewing 879 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 683 with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points.
That margin of error seems high.
How does the electoral college look?
I 'Ve got 257 Harris, 270 Trump, with 11 states tied
And the “Harris is ahead in every poll!!!” Is sure to generate at least a little apathy for the dem voters
I don’t think so. Do you think Democrats will lose the current momentum anytime soon? I don’t think so. They haven’t had a convention yet.
National polls, like this one, are an indicator of state polls and probably the reason why three states went from lean Republican to toss up yesterday. State polls are an indicator for electoral college, though they are taken more irregularly. All these move through time.
Yeah, but indicative of how ridiculously long the election cycle is there are still 3 months for things to change. 3 months is a long time with new info coming out hourly at this rate.
The election cycle began a long time ago. Years. It becomes public when the campaigns engage. Variations in a close election, which this is, can happen but they usually are subtle changes. Not this time, as a big shift happened with Bidens step down. About two weeks before the election the electorate will be set and there won’t be much movement.
Historically, positive polling trends tend to increase support. It’s the bandwagon effect, and it’s the reason why there have always been bullshit polls that are designed to skew results in favor of a particular candidate or position.
2016 was a weird exception, and a large part of that can be attributed to the fact that a lot of people didn’t want to vote for Hillary. Being in the lead didn’t mean they had a good candidate, it meant that she had enough support already and it wasn’t necessary to force yourself to vote for her.
With Biden out and Harris in, I think polls with her beating Trump are likely to have a net positive effect. There has been a lingering sense of inevitable doom hanging over the Democrats in this election, and I’m much more concerned about people getting discouraged and not bothering to vote than I am about people getting overconfident.
Gotta pump those numbers up. Them’s rookie numbers 📈
