When I ran the number I had a few other takeaways worth noting.
Harris received about 8.6% less than Biden nationally.
In the swing states, Harris out performed him four of them (GA +2.9%, NV +.1%, NC +.2%, WI +2.3%)
In the remaining three the percentage loss was less than the national (AZ -5.7%, MI -2.9%, and PA -2.6%)
Trump increased turnout in the seven swing states relative to 2020 (the lowest was in NC +4.0% and the highest was NV +12.0%)
Looking at the numbers this way, you see that Trump was able to turnout the vote more than Harris in the seven swing states. What were they doing right? Who were these people?
In NC, you see a lot of split ticket votes. These are people who voted for Trump for President, but then voted for the Democratic governor. In MI, AZ, WI, and NV you see a split tickets electing Democratic Senators.
Swing voters and independents, like you mentioned in your first message, aren’t as prominent as self-reporting polling suggests. But low-propensity voters have no loyalty. They may vote, they may not, they may vote Republican or Democrat. They are the true vibe voter. And in the seven swing states, they matter. In a dystopic way, all our fates lie with about 10-15% of the voting population who could take it to leave it.
Finally, as for those who stay home… We have a consistent 1/3 of the voting eligible population who don’t vote. Some of these people just haven’t reached any meaningful political consciousness. They are young or unhoused or just don’t think the system can change. But then there’s a portion of that 1/3 that vote one cycle and not the next. This makes a portion of that 1/3 dynamic. But they just don’t feel that their vote counts. That last one could change if we change the system. But we only change the system when we are in crisis. And then we only change the system enough to get out of crisis.
I appreciate that you ran the numbers.
When I ran the number I had a few other takeaways worth noting.
Looking at the numbers this way, you see that Trump was able to turnout the vote more than Harris in the seven swing states. What were they doing right? Who were these people?
In NC, you see a lot of split ticket votes. These are people who voted for Trump for President, but then voted for the Democratic governor. In MI, AZ, WI, and NV you see a split tickets electing Democratic Senators.
Swing voters and independents, like you mentioned in your first message, aren’t as prominent as self-reporting polling suggests. But low-propensity voters have no loyalty. They may vote, they may not, they may vote Republican or Democrat. They are the true vibe voter. And in the seven swing states, they matter. In a dystopic way, all our fates lie with about 10-15% of the voting population who could take it to leave it.
Finally, as for those who stay home… We have a consistent 1/3 of the voting eligible population who don’t vote. Some of these people just haven’t reached any meaningful political consciousness. They are young or unhoused or just don’t think the system can change. But then there’s a portion of that 1/3 that vote one cycle and not the next. This makes a portion of that 1/3 dynamic. But they just don’t feel that their vote counts. That last one could change if we change the system. But we only change the system when we are in crisis. And then we only change the system enough to get out of crisis.