You’re assuming that if they break apart, they wouldn’t trade with each other anymore. That’s not what happened with the USSR, and it’s not what happened with Brexit, and it’s not what would happen if the US split apart.
The federal government won’t be able to do jack shit if California, Oregon(maybe not), and Washington decide to stop giving it money. Sending in the military wouldn’t work, there’s far too many conflicts of interest within the troops. People who were born there, or have family there, or friends.
Seceding from the union is illegal. They would just arrest the organizers in the state government and replace them with acceptable politicians to bring them back in line.
Yeah, it stopped the United States from breaking up before. What better case study than the exact same scenario. Just this time its a much much stronger union army against a much much poorer economic system for the seceding army.
Other countries would not supply the secessionists with any military equipment and they almost certainly wouldn’t purchase any products from them either. International sanctions against the seceding states would end the “war” before it even began.
I think you fail to realize how big and important of a country the west coast of the US would be if it broke off. Countries wouldn’t have an option on sanctions, because the headquarters of some pretty foundational companies are located there (Microsoft, Apple, Google, Netflix, etc.)
California, Oregon, Washington together could split off, and it would be the third largest economy in the world behind only the remaining US and China.
It wouldn’t be as ugly as you assume, the rest of the country would kind of be forced to accept it. It would look far more like Brexit than the US civil war.
I recognize that, but even if they were to still somehow navigate the economic situation, the government officials would immediately be charged with sedition and a warrant would be issued for their arrest. They wouldn’t be able to flee the country because any allied country would extradite them to the formal United States government. So the only other option would be to stay and forcefully defend their arrest. That brings in the national guard and any escalation would drive us toward a true civil war. MAYBE secession becomes so popular amongst the population that they also are willing to defend their secessionists political leaders with force, but I doubt it. Even in the event of it becoming a true civil war, the rest of the United States is absolutely massive. There’d be no way of defending against all of the avenues of attack. Air superiority would be established immediately by surrounding AFBs, mobile AA systems, and returning aircraft carriers. Naval blockade would prevent any foreign aid from reaching the West Coast. Lack of any real microchip processing plants would make the proliferation of modern arms impossible…
I just can’t see any other outcome than those government leaders being arrested, replaced, then any secession being nullified and reversed by the newly installed government officials. Though if you are able to think of something, I’d be open to thinking of a potential rebuttal.
You’re assuming that if they break apart, they wouldn’t trade with each other anymore. That’s not what happened with the USSR, and it’s not what happened with Brexit, and it’s not what would happen if the US split apart.
The federal government won’t be able to do jack shit if California, Oregon(maybe not), and Washington decide to stop giving it money. Sending in the military wouldn’t work, there’s far too many conflicts of interest within the troops. People who were born there, or have family there, or friends.
Seceding from the union is illegal. They would just arrest the organizers in the state government and replace them with acceptable politicians to bring them back in line.
Seceding from the union is illegal, unless we all agree that this is going to happen.
But there’s plenty of other geographical issues with this idea. It’s hard to draw lines around liberal cities and conservative rural areas.
Ah yes, that’s definitely stopped countries from breaking up before.
Yeah, it stopped the United States from breaking up before. What better case study than the exact same scenario. Just this time its a much much stronger union army against a much much poorer economic system for the seceding army.
Other countries would not supply the secessionists with any military equipment and they almost certainly wouldn’t purchase any products from them either. International sanctions against the seceding states would end the “war” before it even began.
I think you fail to realize how big and important of a country the west coast of the US would be if it broke off. Countries wouldn’t have an option on sanctions, because the headquarters of some pretty foundational companies are located there (Microsoft, Apple, Google, Netflix, etc.)
California, Oregon, Washington together could split off, and it would be the third largest economy in the world behind only the remaining US and China.
It wouldn’t be as ugly as you assume, the rest of the country would kind of be forced to accept it. It would look far more like Brexit than the US civil war.
I recognize that, but even if they were to still somehow navigate the economic situation, the government officials would immediately be charged with sedition and a warrant would be issued for their arrest. They wouldn’t be able to flee the country because any allied country would extradite them to the formal United States government. So the only other option would be to stay and forcefully defend their arrest. That brings in the national guard and any escalation would drive us toward a true civil war. MAYBE secession becomes so popular amongst the population that they also are willing to defend their secessionists political leaders with force, but I doubt it. Even in the event of it becoming a true civil war, the rest of the United States is absolutely massive. There’d be no way of defending against all of the avenues of attack. Air superiority would be established immediately by surrounding AFBs, mobile AA systems, and returning aircraft carriers. Naval blockade would prevent any foreign aid from reaching the West Coast. Lack of any real microchip processing plants would make the proliferation of modern arms impossible…
I just can’t see any other outcome than those government leaders being arrested, replaced, then any secession being nullified and reversed by the newly installed government officials. Though if you are able to think of something, I’d be open to thinking of a potential rebuttal.