Given the wild imbalance between summer- and winter-time solar generation (in Germany it’s an order of magnitude, and further north, in the Baltics, it’d be more), it’d probably be a good idea to overbuild solar capacity and have some energy storage with a year time frame like pumped hydro, storing summer surplus for the winter.
The article is mostly correct. :)
Notes: out of the three, Latvia has serious energy storage - a 4 billion cubic meter (at normal pressure) underground gas store, sufficient to carry all three countries over the winter. So far, it’s filled with fossil natural gas - but some day it could be filled with synthesized methane.
As a backup option, Estonia has oil shale - probably the worst fuel on Earth, so the price of emitting CO2 keeps those plants out of the energy market during summer. During winter, they come online though.
As for solar, we aren’t planning to rely much on that. Solar capacity has of course skyrocketed, but only because it’s very easy to install. For me, it provices a nice way to charge my car from April to October. But at latitudes 55 to 60, days are really very short in midwinter, so wind and waste wood are the likely candidates in future - after oil shale leaves the scene, but before synthetic gas becomes feasible.
Regarding pumped hydro - it can stabilize a day, but can’t stabilize a week or month. Lithuania has a biggish (~10 GWh) pumped storage facility. The rest of Baltics don’t have suitable terrain. Estonia has limestone banks, but they’re under various forms of protection and even if one built a lot of pumped hydro, the low elevation difference (up to 50 meters) means one couldn’t support the electric grid through more than a few days.
Regarding hydrogen - maybe. But hydrogen is difficult to store, so I’m betting on wind, and on sourcing technology from Germany to produce synthetic methane from excess power during summer, and pumping it to Latvia for storage.
Finally - connecting to the continental EU power grid allows importing energy when local wind isn’t strong enough, and exporting any surplus. So far, all three countries are still in the ex-Soviet synchronization area (common with Russia and Belarus, but with no trade, just synchronization), and thus unable to connect with the EU synchronization area. Local power companies have been building synchronous compensators (devices that steer grid frequency) for the past 2 years to drop this dependency.
If things go as planned, Baltic countries will sever those connections and join the EU grid via Poland in winter 2025. Undersea cables already go from Estonia to Finland and Lithuania to Sweden, but in the current political conditions, I don’t think anyone counts of them for sure (a Chinese-owned but Russian-crewed ship broke the Estonia-Finland gas pipeline last autumn when dragging its anchor during a storm - it’s still unsure if the damage was accidental or not).
But at latitudes 55 to 60, days are really very short in midwinter, so wind and waste wood are the likely candidates in future - after oil shale leaves the scene, but before synthetic gas becomes feasible.
I was wondering exactly this - the Baltic countries are quite far to the north, so the feasibility of solar energy must be bordering on questionable there. Thank you.
