Is that with Harris winning assuming that everything is normal, or Harris winning by enough of a margin that even a few states refusing to certify ballots and counting on the Supreme Court to have their back wouldn’t be enough to stop her?
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Just look at how bad they got the VP pick if you need reminding how little this means…
Can you elaborate on what you mean?
The bookmakers had Shapiro way ahead of Walz regarding who Harris would pick in the lead up to her decision.
ETA: I guess to put a point on it:
VOTE!It’s fine to be motivated and enthused by information like this so long as it doesn’t make you complacent.
Betting markets are not good at predicting outcomes. They are good at making money. Book makers just balance the bets coming in.
Imagine an event that has a perfect 50/50 chance of happening, but one side has more people and money betting on it. Book makers just use the odds offered to balance the money so they always make 10%. That means they don’t offer 50/50 odds.
Even if it was good at predicting, it doesn’t mean one person or another is going to win. It just means what is more likely. If something has a 10% chance of happening and it happens, it doesn’t mean the predictions were bad.
This applies to any predictive method. The predictive methods can be bad, but not necessarily so.
Oh yeah, I completely misread your original comment. You’re right.
Once you questioned it I realized it must have been ambiguously worded. There was a bit of brain lag which is why I had to go back and edit to clarify my “clarification” 😅🤪
To be fair that’s a very different situation. Predicting how one person is going to decide is very difficult. Predicting how a large group is going to decide when you ask a subset of them first is much more predictable.
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The two upsets came in 1948, when Harry Truman (D) beat eight-to-one odds to defeat Thomas Dewey ®, and in 2016, when Trump overcame seven-to-two odds to beat Hillary Clinton.
Wow, and both of those were famous upsets outside of betting circles: newspapers even preprinted Dewey victory articles in 1948.
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Also from James Comey.
My coworker put in a bet on Trump right after he entered the election the first time. Can’t remember the odds but it was staggering and we joked about it constantly until it became true.
Betting odds from 4 sites (not legal to bet in the US, be careful):
Your basic lagging indicator.
1000 Trump words = 5 Harris words
I am stupid and don’t know election/betting charts, Why is up negative
You would have to wager $1.25 to win $1.
Whereas with Trump at 0, you wager $1 to win $1.
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MBFC: Left-Center - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: Mostly Factual - United States of America
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