Betting markets are not good at predicting outcomes. They are good at making money. Book makers just balance the bets coming in.
Imagine an event that has a perfect 50/50 chance of happening, but one side has more people and money betting on it. Book makers just use the odds offered to balance the money so they always make 10%. That means they don’t offer 50/50 odds.
Even if it was good at predicting, it doesn’t mean one person or another is going to win. It just means what is more likely. If something has a 10% chance of happening and it happens, it doesn’t mean the predictions were bad.
This applies to any predictive method. The predictive methods can be bad, but not necessarily so.
Betting markets are not good at predicting outcomes. They are good at making money. Book makers just balance the bets coming in.
Imagine an event that has a perfect 50/50 chance of happening, but one side has more people and money betting on it. Book makers just use the odds offered to balance the money so they always make 10%. That means they don’t offer 50/50 odds.
Even if it was good at predicting, it doesn’t mean one person or another is going to win. It just means what is more likely. If something has a 10% chance of happening and it happens, it doesn’t mean the predictions were bad.
This applies to any predictive method. The predictive methods can be bad, but not necessarily so.