Whether former swing states, captured ex-solid states, or states that have always had close margins. I picked 7 for each side(I was gonna do 3, then 4, then 5, but the number on one side always felt awkward like one side had a weird outlier edge case or something. Pink has a clean base of 4 while Cyan has two main ones and then like, 5 is the next one where it all fits)
Pink States are Iowa, Ohio, and Florida(former Swing States in the 2000-2016 era), Texas, South Carolina, and Alaska (Red States weakening) and Indiana(2008 pick up that’s been red before and after).
Cyan States are Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, and New Hampshire(former swing states in the 2000-2016 era), plus Maine and Minnesota(perpetually teetering states) and New Jersey(Blue state weakening).
Personally doubt any of them are swinging this year. Virginia will be the tightest on the left list and Iowa on the right list.
I would be shocked to see Virginia would flip; the DC metro area is heavily dependent on government jobs, and a lot of those jobs are threatened by Project 2025.
My final prediction is that between the Arlington Cemetery thing, Cornel West not getting on the ballot there, and no smaller third parties getting in, Virginia’ll stay Blue. Though it’ll be closer than many expect.
Had a perfect hat trick happened 3rd party wise (Which came close: no Randall Terry, RFK got off the ballot, weakened late Libertarian presense. They just needed Cornel West. Plus ideally some random smaller third party, like how NJ got the two small Socialist parties on), plus no Arlington debacle costing suburban votes in the North near Richmond, I might have been willing to consider the possibility of it going red, maybe(about as likely as Michigan, still strong lean blue, but in swing state territory), but not now.
In the timeline where Cornel gets on the ballot, some smaller socialist parties do, and the Arlington Cemetary thing goes perfectly(low key visit, no physical altercation, maybe Trump takes one picture with families and posts it instead of a spectacle) I’d be saying Virginia is a swing state this time.