• Ranvier@sopuli.xyz
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    1 month ago

    I hate these hyperbolic headlines describing some tiny poll movement in a single poll well within the margin of error, describing it a some definitive clear change in support.

    Here’s the times sienna poll today for instance, another high quality pollster, where she went from tied to now 3% ahead and is leading for the first time in that poll since July.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4921203-kamala-harris-donald-trump-national-new-york-times-poll/

    If the race is truly a 3 point gap right now, and the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent, you’re going to see polls with her everywhere from one behind to 7 ahead. It’s a bad idea to hyper scrutinize or draw big conclusions from tiny changes in one poll.