The article warns that a recession in the US may hit as early as the fourth quarter due to rising complacency. It argues the Fed’s interest rate hikes will not fully impact the economy for another 18-24 months. Several potential shocks are highlighted such as an auto strike, student loan payments resuming, and a spike in oil prices. A slowdown in China and other developing economies is also weighing on global growth. While forecasts still largely expect a soft landing, the article notes that widespread calls for one often precede recessions.

It claims the credit system will face more difficulties as banks tighten lending standards.

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