I don’t know a single person voting Nats but my gut feeling is they will get it. And likely not by a huge margin, meaning Nat-Act govt likely.
ITT no discussing why X should or shouldn’t be in, just your predictions.
Also, is it illegal to bet on elections?
Unfortunately it would (given it is Winston after all) be the other way round Labour-NZF minority gov with TPM & Greens for confidence and supply