FLAMING_AUBURN_LOCKS [she/her]

  • 0 Posts
  • 18 Comments
Joined 4 years ago
cake
Cake day: August 5th, 2020

help-circle




  • Here’s my thoughts about what preceded the Moscow attack. It’s obviously very fishy, but I think this is another moment of disunity between Kyiv and Washington, of their policies not playing well with each other

    The perpetrators more or less admitting they mostly did it for money and didn’t want to die is EXTREMELY out of character for Jihadists, and them trying to make a break for Ukraine is a weird red flag. It hints at some kind of Western connection to the attack, but then you’ve got America strangely pre-empting it with a warning about a terror attack in Moscow weeks before. Not something you typically do if you’re trying to make sure the attack happens in the first place.

    I feel that Ukraine tried covertly arming and coordinating with Islamist groups like ISIS in an attempt to foment chaos/ignite a war with Chechnya or disorder is other Islamic regions of the Federations. The Ukrainian government is in a do-or-die position where they might feel pressured to do something underhanded and unethical like this. But then at some point, they either ran the idea by the Americans and got a “Hell No” response, or they were trying to keep it under wraps but the Americans found out anyways.

    Accepting that the attack was going to happen whether they liked it or not, the Yanks are stuck with a dilemma. If they keep their lips sealed and let a catastrophic terror attack happen in a geopolitically convenient place, they risk it being discovered that they knew in advance but didn’t stop it, humiliating the US diplomatically for being hypocrites and tanking Biden’s reelection chances.

    The harm reduction option is to adhere to Duty to Warn, maybe try to limit civilian deaths by discouraging public gatherings (if that’s even a concern for US leadership), all while having the plausible deniability of being able to say “Well we knew something was going to happen, but we didn’t know our friends in Ukraine were involved!”. Or even to just outright say “That’s propaganda, we didn’t know Ukraine would do this/Ukraine wouldn’t do this! Look, we even warned you that we knew something was going to happen? Why would we do that if we knew/collaborated?”

    A proxy state’s interests aren’t always totally aligned with their overlord’s, and there have been plenty of times in the past where US Military leadership has seemed openly aggravated with Ukrainian strategies. As the situation grows more desperate, Ukraine will become more and more willing to resort to questionable/Machiavellian plays to somehow turn the tides, even if it actively harms US interests. At the end of the day, it’s the Ukrainian officers and politicians who will end up at best unemployed and at worst on trial if Russia wins, not any members of the Biden administration.