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Cake day: March 5th, 2024

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  • They lost a lot at the beginning. Now they are left with what they can produce new and refurbish from storage.

    I’ve seen estimates of this being 300 to 2000 tanks annually (1 to 6 tanks daily). Since they are in a big push right now they are likely using up their operational reserves that they built up over months.

    So they can afford to lose more tanks than they “produce” daily, but how long they can keep up this attrition rate up is unclear. I’ve seen estimates that they have 3000ish tanks left in field/reserve/storage.

    However, it’s unclear what condition these stored tanks are in. They likely used the newer tanks and those needing the least refurbishment first, leaving the only the dregs (old and heavily damaged) left.

    Edit: added a couple clarifying words.


  • I’ve heard the Russian economy is overheating and is going to have major problems by mid 2025 (interest rates already 20+% and home mortgage rate have hit a peak at 40%). I figured that would mean that the Russian war machine would start having massive problems by the end of 2025.

    But the way Russia is pushing so hard, after a Trump victory and expected US support withdrawal and pressure to negotiate, makes me think they are trying to begin negotiation on Day 1 of a Trump presidency. Which I would infer means they are in a worse position than I expected and could have massive war machine problems by mid 2025.

    If Ukraine was then able to, and did continue, fighting until the end of 2025, they may start making major gains in the war against the broken Russian war machine. Putin may call a second mobilization wave to slow the Ukrainians but that may be counterproductive by causing general unrest and protestation against the war.





  • It may be because they are running out of reserve Soviet equipment and are forced to rely on meat assaults to keep up the pressure.

    I’ve noticed the number of artillery system destroyed per day is about half (~25-35/day) of what it was for most of the past year (~70/day).

    Same with APCs, the number seems to have halved and the “vehicles and fuel tanks” number has risen to compensate. To me, that indicates the Russians are riding into battle on unarmed vehicles (motorcycles, golf carts, regular cars/trucks, etc.) and are more suseptible to becoming a casualty than earlier in the war.

    If that were the case, the Russians pressure/assaults may not have increased as significantly as the casualty number increase would indicate.



  • I suspect the storage facilities are close to being completed emptied of working or easily fixable pieces and all that’s left is scrap/spare part pieces.

    They may be receiving, or could receive in the future, artillery pieces from allies (ex. NK) that could change their ability to keep up losses.

    Regarding China, I don’t think China would militarily invade a stable Russia (not civil wared). I think it’s more likely they will economically dominate them, with the implicit threat of militarily/covert action if Russia tries and recover their economic sovereignty in those dominated regions.







  • Relevant sections from the article:

    … 1,158 likely U.S. voters in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

    Conducted by Data for Progress, the poll shows that Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump are locked in a dead heat in the six battleground states with three months to go before the November 5 election. A slim majority of voters across the states examined feel that neither Democrats nor Republicans “have clear solutions for the biggest issues facing the country,” suggesting there’s a significant opportunity for either candidate to win over voters with a concrete policy agenda that centers the material needs of the working class.

    The survey makes clear that progressive policy objectives have widespread appeal across the political spectrum. For example, the poll shows that 71% of voters in the battleground states—including 89% of Democrats, 67% of Independents and third-party voters, and 55% of Republicans—want the wealthy to pay more in taxes, a sentiment that aligns with progressive goals and contrasts with those of Trump and the GOP.

    The poll also indicates broad support for raising taxes on big, profitable corporations; expanding Social Security by “making the wealthy pay the same rate as the working class”; hiking the long-stagnant federal minimum wage; and expanding Medicare to cover dental, vision, and hearing benefits.

    Support for more ambitious progressive agenda items, such as Medicare for All, is less solid among Republicans and Independents, according to the new survey, but still has strong backing among the Democratic base—68% of which supports transitioning to a single-payer healthcare system.

    From a tweet captured in the article:

    84% want Medicare to cover dental, vision & hearing

    77% want to expand Social Security

    75% want a cap on rent increases

    71% want to restore $300/month Child Tax Credit

    70% want a $17/hour Minimum Wage

    64% want to cancel Medical Debt