That’s assuming that all Trump supporters vote down ballot. I’ve been reading that a non-negligable percentage of Trump voters just voted for president and left down ballot races blank. Considering Trump only won the swing states by tiny percentages, a small percentage of Trump voters leaving blank the rest is easily enough to sway it
For instance, if we look at Wisconsin senate, we see that Tammy Baldwin has almost exactly the same number of votes as Harris (only a couple hundred more), but Eric Hovde shows less substantially votes than Trump got
Results with ~99% reported:
Donald Trump: 1,697,769
Kamala Harris: 1,668,082
(And about 40k for third party)
Vs senate
Tammy Baldwin: 1,668,545 [+436 from Harris]
Eric Hovde: 1,641,181 [-56,615 from Trump]
The best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago. The second best is now
Separate from the Dems, but The Lincoln Project did run some ads aimed literally just at Trump to make him angry at his campaign staff. Here’s one example that ran on Fox News during the hours that Trump was most likely to watch it. The Trump campaign ended up sending a cease and desist over it
We have avoided some of the worst case this election. Down ballot dems have done a lot better than for president and that’s going to matter to keep them from being able to do anything without infighting fears. We could’ve been looking at a 57-43 senate should the swing states not have largely split their votes between senate and president. Instead we’re likely looking at a 53-47 or 52-48 senate.* The house could’ve also been worse too.
In state legislatures, dems did fairly well all things considered. State legislatures are the place that resistance to Trump is most likely to really be effective. We’ve managed to keep a lot of state legislature seats and even flip some in other areas. For instance, we broke up North Carolina’s republican super majority for instance which means the Democratic governor-elect can have effective vetos. We kept the 1 seat majority in the PA state house in a funny way of having two seats flipped in opposite directions and canceling each other out
*The Associated Press has called PA for McCormick, but Decision Desk actually thinks that Casey has a ~66% chance of winning still and neither campaign has conceded. McCormick is saying he thinks the call was incorrect and thinks things will could actually flip with the last 100,000 or so votes left to count and or may go to recount
EDIT: and to add on for further context, Decision Desk is usually some of the first to call any race - to the point where some people say their calls are premature. The AP usually calls races after Decision Desk. The AP usually is much more slow on their calls which is why this situation is so strange where the AP has called it but Decision Desk hasn’t and thinks it actually has 2/3 odds of going the opposite way that the AP called it
They will probably at least slow themselves down at minimum, though and that will matter. Their majority is already narrow and there are good odds of cutting into that majority further or potentially even flipping the house if we’re very lucky. They had house speakership fights for a while in 2022 with a narrow majority
They are already having some signs of potential infighting in the senate where some Republicans are trying to claim McConnell is holding a “coup” against trump by having earlier senate leader elections (McConnel is not running for senate majority leader so it’s a bit more competitive)
It saw some big growth after Brazil banned twitter and network effects make platform changes take longer
Network effects matter a lot for social media. You need people on a platform for people to use it
Every erosion of a platform’s users will matter. Platforms often die by a thoudand cuts. It doesn’t have to be a single death blow
Do not give up the fight. Make every little issue a drawn out fight so they cannot move on to the next thing
Despair and hopelessness are what they want you to have. They want you to let them take it away without any resistance. Don’t give in
At the federal level, drag out everything and block everything you can. Their margins in the house, should it be called in their favor, will be extremely narrow. Let them in fight and flame against each other. Use every procedural rule to slow stuff down. Filibuster everything. Even if a specific issue is a losing fight, make them have to fight it so they cannot move on to something else. Republicans have used these tricks to block progress for a long time, time to flip it back on them
At the state level, we can much have more room to push back. A lot of what they are likely to pull is pushing things back into the states. Codify everything at state levels. Ensrhine our rights into state constitutions. A lot of federal operations rely on state government cooperating behind the scenes. Without it, a lot more can be slowed way down or made much more difficult
Outside the government, we still have power as individuals. Organize unions, protests, etc
Most people actually voted in favor of the florida abortion ammendment. The threshold is just unusually higher (60%) than most states. It was close to 60% but just a little shy at around 57%
With a different national environment with just a bit higher dem turnout, it probably would’ve passed
And tens of millions did not. Fight for them
Affordable care act, also referred to as Obamacare. The name Obamacare was coined by republicans the actual name of the legislation was the affordable care act
Ah I looked a bit earlier with less vote percentage reporting. Guess the outstanding vote was in more republican areas than I had thought. Regardless, the rest of my point still stands even if the vote share is about the same this election
Don’t give it to them freely. If we give in, they can just move on to the next thing. Make even minor law changes a pain for them. Fight every battle so that they cannot spend as much time eroding voting rights.
Elections are run at the state level, even ones for federal office. Make sure every local office is filled with a progressive that will stand up for it. Some states have elections next year (before midterms) for offices that are going to matter for exactly that
It’s worth noting that many local and state offices are paid part time positions. Many people work a full time job and do work for a small local office on the side
Many of groups most likely to be affected did overwhelmingly vote. For instance, queer people voted even more for Harris in 2024 than they did for Biden in 2020. They didn’t want this, and we now need to stand up for them
He still lost vote shared had just about the same vote share compared to the previous election. It’s just that dems didn’t show up as much. If his tariff plans go into effect, his support will almost certainly drop a fair amount more. A good chunk of people supported him because they thought he’d magically fix everything economically. Destroying the economy will turn people against him or at least not make them so actively support him
Tens of millions did not vote for this. If they want to take away rights, make every one a fight. Every thing that they have to spend time on keeps them from moving on to the next thing
Grief is natural, but we cannot give up the fight. Tens of millions did not vote for this. If they want to take away rights, make every one a fight
Everything we fight is time they cannot spend moving on to the next thing. Drag every fight out even if it’s something seemingly minor. Give them no ground
The more resistance they see, the weaker they become
Don’t give in to the despair that want to have. An authoritarian’s greatest power lies less in their direct power and more in the hopelessness and culture of fear they want you to have. Self censorship is usually far stronger than direct censorship
They want you to never fight in any way, because you might reveal them to be weaker than you thought
Even if you are fighting a losing fight on a single issue, make it a fight! Everything you can drag out is time they can’t spend making something else worse
Yes, they did really buy Info Wars. Here’s a serious site talking about it:
https://www.axios.com/2024/11/14/alex-jones-infowars-the-onion