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Cake day: June 1st, 2023

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  • That’s assuming that all Trump supporters vote down ballot. I’ve been reading that a non-negligable percentage of Trump voters just voted for president and left down ballot races blank. Considering Trump only won the swing states by tiny percentages, a small percentage of Trump voters leaving blank the rest is easily enough to sway it

    For instance, if we look at Wisconsin senate, we see that Tammy Baldwin has almost exactly the same number of votes as Harris (only a couple hundred more), but Eric Hovde shows less substantially votes than Trump got

    Results with ~99% reported:

    Donald Trump: 1,697,769

    Kamala Harris: 1,668,082

    (And about 40k for third party)

    Vs senate

    Tammy Baldwin: 1,668,545 [+436 from Harris]

    Eric Hovde: 1,641,181 [-56,615 from Trump]




  • We have avoided some of the worst case this election. Down ballot dems have done a lot better than for president and that’s going to matter to keep them from being able to do anything without infighting fears. We could’ve been looking at a 57-43 senate should the swing states not have largely split their votes between senate and president. Instead we’re likely looking at a 53-47 or 52-48 senate.* The house could’ve also been worse too.

    In state legislatures, dems did fairly well all things considered. State legislatures are the place that resistance to Trump is most likely to really be effective. We’ve managed to keep a lot of state legislature seats and even flip some in other areas. For instance, we broke up North Carolina’s republican super majority for instance which means the Democratic governor-elect can have effective vetos. We kept the 1 seat majority in the PA state house in a funny way of having two seats flipped in opposite directions and canceling each other out


    *The Associated Press has called PA for McCormick, but Decision Desk actually thinks that Casey has a ~66% chance of winning still and neither campaign has conceded. McCormick is saying he thinks the call was incorrect and thinks things will could actually flip with the last 100,000 or so votes left to count and or may go to recount

    EDIT: and to add on for further context, Decision Desk is usually some of the first to call any race - to the point where some people say their calls are premature. The AP usually calls races after Decision Desk. The AP usually is much more slow on their calls which is why this situation is so strange where the AP has called it but Decision Desk hasn’t and thinks it actually has 2/3 odds of going the opposite way that the AP called it







  • At the federal level, drag out everything and block everything you can. Their margins in the house, should it be called in their favor, will be extremely narrow. Let them in fight and flame against each other. Use every procedural rule to slow stuff down. Filibuster everything. Even if a specific issue is a losing fight, make them have to fight it so they cannot move on to something else. Republicans have used these tricks to block progress for a long time, time to flip it back on them

    At the state level, we can much have more room to push back. A lot of what they are likely to pull is pushing things back into the states. Codify everything at state levels. Ensrhine our rights into state constitutions. A lot of federal operations rely on state government cooperating behind the scenes. Without it, a lot more can be slowed way down or made much more difficult

    Outside the government, we still have power as individuals. Organize unions, protests, etc










  • He still lost vote shared had just about the same vote share compared to the previous election. It’s just that dems didn’t show up as much. If his tariff plans go into effect, his support will almost certainly drop a fair amount more. A good chunk of people supported him because they thought he’d magically fix everything economically. Destroying the economy will turn people against him or at least not make them so actively support him

    Tens of millions did not vote for this. If they want to take away rights, make every one a fight. Every thing that they have to spend time on keeps them from moving on to the next thing