It’s hard to know because we don’t know exactly what the rest of the Resistance will do as Israel approaches that brink, not to mention if Israel will even be able to maintain enough surface-level control to carry out mass evacuations nor whether Gazans would even obey and would rather flee north and hide even if the chance of death is very high, but even in the worst case scenario, it doesn’t like, end the war, y’know.

Like, it’s not as if, Israel expels a million Palestinians into the Sinai - Mission Complete! Final Fantasy victory fanfare sounds! History ends here! You Win! They would still have to deal with the armed groups inside Gaza - to which they have been attriting heavily to - and the aftermath of that action on a local, regional, and global level. It’s a facet of defeat, but it’s not The End Of Palestine™.

Hell, let’s assume that every Palestinian that isn’t an armed militant drops dead tomorrow. Does that end the Israeli internal crisis? No. It would continue with a mostly unchanged intensity. The civilian and military spheres of this conflict are somewhat related, but not directly, and there’s no way of analysing the conflict if you can’t simultaneously realize that the civilian situation is a total disaster but the military situation is going pretty well for Gaza right now, as guerrilla wars go. In anti-colonial wars, especially guerrilla wars, the deaths of extremely high numbers of civilians is basically baked in because the settlers are deranged, bloodthirsty monsters unless they experience enough violence to be forced into submission, and even then they might grumble. Algeria, Vietnam, the DPRK, Libya, Ethiopia. This conflict isn’t uniquely terrible (aside from the time it’s taking place and the weapons being used) - the better part of a million civilians died in Algeria. 20% of the DPRK’s population perished and there were no above-ground structures left standing. Hell, some of our grandparents and great grandparents, if of a certain nationality and ideology, would have been doing bizarre TikTok dances celebrating the mass bombing of irrigation dams in the DPRK or the millions of Congo amputations had TikTok been around back then and had those atrocities been easily conveyed to the rest of the world. So it’s not really right to be like “Death to fucking Israel, the death toll is now X hundred thousand people, they’ve expelled the native population to a different region / the concentration camps, I guess the war is lost,” because such death tolls are just the historical precedent of even successful anti-colonial wars.

(To go on a brief rant, I genuinely don’t believe the “Western psyche”, if one can be said to exist in that general of a sense, hasn’t progressed one iota since at least 1900, and probably earlier. Western liberals could very, very easily justify doing another Holocaust if it was against “people who deserved it”, whether that be Chinese people or immigrants of various nationalities or certain minorities. I don’t even really mean like, “We have to be constantly vigilant for fascism because the people who did the Holocaust were humans just like you and me,” I mean like, the same people who are saying that we have to be constantly vigilant against fascism could themselves justify another Holocaust because “it’s not really fascism to want to round up and separate those people, it’s just common sense really.” I mean, how many people died in American wars in the Middle East this side of the turn of the millennium? Do American liberals really, deeply care, or are they just being like “Oh yeah, uh, war is, uh, bad, now that we’re not really actively fighting it anymore.”? It’s hard-baked into the fundamental code of liberalism. It is the black hole that isn’t directly visible but is revealed by everything else orbitting around it.)

If Israel’s plan is to expel them into the Sinai then it is my opinion that Egypt will be forced to act. Not out of some sense of solidarity with the Palestinians- America already bribes the Egyptian government every year with military aid to dispense with that- but out of simple self-preservation. First of all, they don’t want to deal with massive amounts of refugees since they’d now be responsible for housing and feeding millions more completely destitute people and greatly straining the Egyptian budget. Furthermore, the Egyptian establishment views Palestinians as mostly a bunch of radical trouble makers, which is not entirely inaccurate considering they are trying to wage a war of liberation. If Palestinians are forced into massive refugee camps in Egypt, those camps would undoubtedly become hotbeds for activism and recruitment of righteous freedom fighters (also known as “terrorist activity” if you live in a white country). Significant numbers of Egyptian citizens would surely become involved in the Palestine struggle. Such a crisis would be an massive headache for the Egyptian political class, and it would potentially last for decades since there’s no way Israel will be letting anyone back in. It would likely permanently destabilize the government. Finally Egypt likes to use Palestinians in Gaza as a buffer against Israeli aggression, so if Gaza is destroyed now Egypt is next in the Zionist crosshairs. After a few years Israel could just say they have to “intervene” in Sinai to “crush the terror camps.” The revisionist Zionists aren’t shy about their plans to conquer even more land. Some dusty cold war era deal with Sadat won’t hold them back from that.

Short of a massive American bribe (hundreds of billions, good luck getting that through Congress right now) I can’t see Sisi accepting this, and even then the Egyptian military might veto any such deal as an existential threat to national security. And it’s the military that ultimately runs politics in Egypt.

There was a message put out by Al Qusam early in the conflict (that I cant find.) They talked about how even if the IDF posts images of the occupation taking control of landmarks in Gaza that people shouldn’t despair because they are fighting a guerrilla war and the IDF are in a trap.

Don’t give in to despair. The axis of resistance are far from done.

Depends on what Egypt and Hezbollah does

Sometimes in my darkest hours wondering about incoming climate change, I sometimes wonder if Palestinians being forced to emigrate en masse to slightly-less-risky climates (so not Egypt) might actually end up saving them and their culture. Climate change forecasts for Palestine/Israel are not good, to say the least. This is of course not a defence of Israel’s genocide.

Maybe I’m just developing a climate change monomania. I’m finding it harder and harder to avoid thinking of geopolitical events under a climate change lens.